According to the latest forecasts from the Construction Products Association (CPA), construction output is forecast to increase by 5.5% in 2015. However, growth is expected to slow in 2016 and 2017 due to uncertainty surrounding the forthcoming general election.
Private house building is predicted to rise by 10.0% in 2015, 5.0% in 2016 and 3.0% in 2017. Meanwhile, commercial construction is expected to increase by 6.4% in 2015, by 5.2% in 2016 and by 4.4% in 2017. Infrastructure activity is forecast to grow by 7.6% in 2015, by 9.2% in 2016 and by 10.6% in 2017.
The CPA’s economics director Dr Noble Francis said: 'Construction output is forecast to increase 5.5% in 2015, which is more than double the rate of growth for the UK economy, due to growth in the three key sectors of construction; private housing, commercial and infrastructure.
'There has been a slowdown in the general housing market but house building continues to drive construction industry growth. After rising 13.3% in 2014, private house building is forecast to increase a further 10.0% to 142,000 new homes in 2015. Commercial construction, worth £22 billion each year, is forecast to rise 6.4% in 2015 due to work on major towers in London and also large offices projects in Birmingham and Manchester.'
With the forthcoming election in mind he continued: 'Over the following two years, however, construction output is forecast to be adversely affected by the UK’s most uncertain election in more than 40 years. The lag between construction contracts and work on the ground means that construction activity in 2015 probably won’t be impacted, since the majority of work for the year has already been planned. Instead, we expect a break in private and public investment this year for future projects, which in turn will lead to slower construction growth of 4.0% in 2016 and 3.4% in 2017.'
Dr Francis concluded: 'Overall, the Construction Products Association forecasts construction output surpassing the pre-recession peak next year, and expect output in 2018 to be 17.9% higher than in 2014. For this to materialise, however, industry will need to work together with the new government to address the need for greater investment in capacity and skills.'